When will EV cars take over petrol or CNG cars in India

As every state government in India is promoting the use of electric cars over fuel based car, you might think about when will EV cars take over petrol or CNG cars.

Well the exact timeline for EVs to “take over” petrol and CNG cars in India is challenging due to various factors influencing the pace of adoption. But still we try our best and reveal you when the EV cars will surpass the fuel based cars. So to give a precised data, we will explore the current landscape and discuss the potential catalysts and roadblocks to provide a well-rounded perspective for your students.

What stopping customers from adoption of EV cars?

• Higher upfront cost: Currently, EVs in India are significantly more expensive than petrol or CNG cars. While battery prices are decreasing, they still represent a substantial portion of the vehicle cost.
• Limited range and charging infrastructure: Range anxiety, the fear of running out of charge before reaching a charging station, remains a concern for many potential EV buyers. Additionally, the charging infrastructure in India is still under development, especially in smaller towns and rural areas.
• Electricity grid constraints: The Indian electricity grid requires significant upgrades to handle the potential increased demand from widespread EV adoption.
• Limited model options: Compared to petrol and CNG, the variety of EV models available in India is smaller, potentially limiting appeal for specific needs and preferences.

What encouraging customers for EV cars?

• Government policies and incentives: The Indian government has implemented various policies like FAME-II, offering subsidies and tax benefits to make EVs more affordable. These initiatives are expected to continue and potentially be enhanced in the future.
• Falling battery costs: As battery technology advances and production scales up, battery costs are expected to continue declining, making EVs more competitive.
• Expanding charging infrastructure: The government and private players are actively investing in building a robust charging network across India. This will significantly address range anxiety and encourage EV adoption.
• Environmental concerns: Growing awareness of air pollution and the need for sustainable transportation is pushing consumers towards eco-friendly options like EVs.
• Technological advancements: Improvements in battery range, charging speed, and vehicle performance will further enhance the appeal of EVs.
• Futuristic looks of cars: Last but not least, the futuristic look of EV cars attract a lot of customer. You can see how EV cars look is so different than a petrol car.

Potential timelines

• Optimistic scenario: As per on report which published on hindustantimes.com, the EVs could reach 40% market share in India by 2030 under ambitious government initiatives and rapid technological advancements. This will also create 5 crores direct and indirect jobs.
• Moderate scenario: A more conservative estimate suggests EVs could capture 15-20% of the market share by 2030, with continued growth likely in the following years.
• Pessimistic scenario: If challenges like infrastructure development and cost reduction face unforeseen delays, EV adoption might progress slower, reaching potentially 10% market share by 2030.

My take is that the ratio of EV car by the end of 2032 will be around 35:65 (35% EV cars and 65% fuel based cars). The scenario might change later and we can see a big change by the end of 2040. After 2040, people will shift on EV cars instead of petrol based car and this would be era of electric cars where you will see more EVs than fuel based vehicles on Indian road.

Conclusion

While predicting a definitive timeline for EV dominance is difficult, the overall trajectory points towards their increasing presence in the Indian market. Government support, technological advancements, and growing environmental consciousness are significant driving forces. However, addressing infrastructure limitations and cost remains crucial for accelerating widespread adoption.

Remember, the pace of change in the automotive industry is rapid, and new developments can reshape the timeline. Staying updated and encouraging critical thinking will equip your students to grasp the nuances of this dynamic field.